3.1 The following table gives the average monthly exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the…

3.1
The following table gives the average monthly exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Euro for 2009. It shows that 1 Euro was equivalent to 1.289 U.S. dollars in January 2009: Page 4 of 5
3.1.1
Using a moving average with four periods, calculate the corresponding forecasts, including the exchange rate for January 2010.
3.1.2
Using a weighted moving average with four periods, calculate the corresponding forecasts, including the exchange rate for January 2010. Use 7, 4, 3, and 1 for the weights of the recent, second most recent, third most recent and fourth most recent periods, respectively.
3.1.3
Using an exponential smoothing method with α = 0.3 (assume the forecast for Jan. 2009 was at 1.275), calculate the corresponding forecasts, including the exchange rate for January 2010.
3.1.4
Evaluate the accuracy of each of these methods (i.e., 3.1.1 to 3.1.3) using the mean absolute percent error and fully explain the results.
3.2
An avid mountain biker, Lyle, always wanted to start a business selling top-of-the-line mountain bikes and other outdoor supplies. A little over six years ago, he and a silent partner opened a store called Trail Bikes and Supplies. The quarterly sales (in R1 000s) for the past four years are shown in the table below:
3.2.1
Explain and show empirically whether the dataset exhibit a trend pattern or not. [No graph or plot required]
3.2.2
Compute the seasonal indices based on the centered moving average and comment on the corresponding values.
3.2.3
Fit a trend line on the appropriate data (comment on the significance of the fitted line) and thereafter, calculate the actual forecasts for the year 2023.